Summary
- Three signs separate a seller’s market from a buyer’s market
- In Quebec, the market tips at 10 months of inventory, not 6
- This fall, the Laurentians lean toward sellers, except in Tremblant
- The real estate cycle shows in the gap between listings and sales
- Where you are in the cycle changes the strategy, not just the price
- Finding out whether your area is a seller’s or buyer’s market
- FAQ
Key takeaways: Seller’s market or buyer’s market? In Quebec, it all comes down to months of inventory. Below 8 months, the seller has the edge; from 8 to 10, the market is balanced; above 10, the buyer negotiates. In fall 2026, houses in the Laurentians are still selling in a seller’s market, except in Mont-Tremblant.
This fall, the houses listed in Saint-Jérôme would sell out in three months, a clear seller’s market, while in Mont-Tremblant the single-family home has only just come out of a buyer’s market. At the same time, the supply of properties rose for a 14th consecutive month in the Montréal area, according to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB). The balance of power plays out area by area, and it is shifting.
The question is where to draw the line. Many web pages put it at 6 months of inventory. QPAREB, which classifies areas using Centris data, puts it at 10.
The difference matters. Under the 6-month rule, a house in Morin-Heights, at about 7.5 months of inventory, would be selling in a buyer’s market. Under QPAREB’s rule, its seller keeps the edge, though the edge was slightly bigger a year ago.
Three signs separate a seller’s market from a buyer’s market
In short: Inventory, time on market and multiple offers together show who holds the upper hand, but only inventory officially classifies an area.
In a seller’s market, active buyers outnumber the properties for sale: in Saint-Jérôme, an average of 58 single-family homes sold per month over the past year, against 178 listed. In a buyer’s market, it is the seller who has to convince: condos in Mont-Tremblant stand at nearly 16 months of inventory.
Time on market gets longer when buyers have choice, but also when a house is overpriced. Multiple offers, for their part, do not appear in QPAREB’s barometer, and neither do sales concluded above the asking price.
- Seller’s market, less than 8 months of inventory. Prices rise quickly, selling times are short and multiple offers are common. The buyer makes the concessions, to the point of being tempted to waive conditions.
- Balanced market, 8 to 10 months. Prices rise moderately, and the conditions of the promise to purchase are negotiated normally, on both sides.
- Buyer’s market, more than 10 months. Prices stall or decline, selling times stretch out with price reductions, and it is the seller who concedes.
The thresholds and price trends come from QPAREB; the rest describes common practice.
In Quebec, the market tips at 10 months of inventory, not 6
In short: For QPAREB, balance lies between 8 and 10 months of inventory, a calculation that Centris’s public figures let you redo in two minutes.
In its residential barometer for the third quarter of 2026, QPAREB writes that “if the number of months of inventory is between 8 and 10, the market is considered balanced.” Below 8, it favours sellers and price growth is “generally high.” Above 10, it favours buyers, and that growth “may even be negative.”
You can redo the calculation with the Centris statistics page for Sainte-Adèle. In the “Last 4 Quarters” column, it shows an average of 139 single-family homes listed and 241 sales, or about 20 sales per month. Divide 139 by 20: 6.9 months, a seller’s market without being tight. The 12-month average smooths out seasonal effects.
All the figures that follow are for the municipality alone, according to Centris, over the 12 months ending in September 2026.
This fall, the Laurentians lean toward sellers, except in Tremblant
In short: Saint-Jérôme, Sainte-Adèle and Morin-Heights remain below 8 months; in Mont-Tremblant, single-family homes are back in balance and condos favour buyers.
Next to each figure, Centris publishes its year-over-year change. Removing that change gives last year’s inventory and sales, and therefore the months of inventory a year ago. The table compares the two, based on the pages for Saint-Jérôme, Sainte-Adèle, Morin-Heights and Mont-Tremblant.
| Municipality and category | Months of inventory a year ago | Today | Market today | Active listings, summer 2026 | Sales, summer 2026 |
| Saint-Jérôme, single-family | 2.5 | 3.1 | Seller’s | +34% | +8% |
| Sainte-Adèle, single-family | 6.7 | 6.9 | Seller’s | +20% | -2% |
| Morin-Heights, single-family | 7.0 | 7.5 | Seller’s | +14% | +63% |
| Mont-Tremblant, single-family | 10.5 | 9.8 | Balanced | +13% | +27% |
| Mont-Tremblant, condominium | 16.7 | 15.8 | Buyer’s | -9% | -24% |
Source: Centris, municipal pages, last 4 quarters as of the third quarter of 2026; summer changes: third quarter alone, year over year. Months of inventory calculated using QPAREB’s method; those from a year ago are derived from rounded changes, to within 0.1 month.
Property type divides markets more than geography does: in the same town of Mont-Tremblant, single-family homes are balanced while condos are in a buyer’s market.
Is your property a single-family home in Morin-Heights or a condo in Tremblant? At 7.5 months of inventory on one side and 16 on the other, the price is not set the same way: an evaluation based on recent sales in its category tells you where yours stands.
The real estate cycle shows in the gap between listings and sales
In short: The same calculation, redone for the previous year, shows a market that is slowly loosening in the southern Laurentians and tightening in Mont-Tremblant.
A market shifts slowly: listings grow faster than sales, months of inventory rise, then prices level off. Saint-Jérôme shows this first stage. This summer, its single-family listings rose 34% year over year, four times faster than sales. The market remains tight, but it has gained half a month of inventory. In Sainte-Adèle, the same gap (+20% in listings, -2% in sales) has not yet moved the annual average.
Mont-Tremblant is moving the other way. A year ago, single-family homes there were in a buyer’s market; they are back in balance, driven by sales up 8% over 12 months. Condos remain in a buyer’s market, but their inventory has shrunk by 8% over the year.
The underlying trend starts in Montréal. QPAREB notes that the rise in supply “is gaining momentum in the suburbs.” In Le Devoir (in French), its director of market analysis, Charles Brant, calls Montréal “the precursor market”: “What is happening in Montréal will likely spread to all of Quebec.”
The median price, for its part, is a poor gauge of the cycle. In Morin-Heights, it fell 11% over 12 months, to $659,750, in a seller’s market. QPAREB warns that the evolution of a median price “does not necessarily reflect the evolution of the value” of properties in an area. A median follows the houses that sold, not all the houses in town. The type of market is one criterion among others when choosing the right time to sell.
Where you are in the cycle changes the strategy, not just the price
In short: Sellers adjust to the competition coming in, buyers to an advantage that is eroding or growing.
A seller in a loosening seller’s market faces more competition than last year’s neighbour: in Saint-Jérôme, 195 single-family homes were listed this summer, compared with about 146 a year earlier. The price is set based on last quarter’s sales and on the houses still for sale in the same category, the ones buyers will visit that same Saturday.
A seller close to a threshold has less room than it seems. In Morin-Heights, with 79 listings, monthly sales would only need to drop by about 7% for single-family homes to reach 8 months, and therefore balance.
A buyer in a seller’s market keeps moving fast: mortgage pre-approval, clear criteria, quick visits. Waiving the inspection to win a bidding war, however, amounts to betting on a building seen only once; the rules for these situations are explained in this article on multiple purchase offers.
A condo buyer in Mont-Tremblant can negotiate the inspection, financing and price without weakening the offer, and an offer below the asking price is nothing insulting at 16 months of inventory. But inventory there is shrinking: waiting for a further drop can cost you the right home. The steps of a purchase are gathered in this regional buying guide.
Finding out whether your area is a seller’s or buyer’s market
Open the Centris page for your municipality and do the calculation twice. Today: active listings in your category divided by its monthly sales. A year ago: the same figures, once their change is removed. The first result, compared with 8 and 10 months, tells you which market you are in; the gap between the two tells you where it is heading.
What Centris does not publish, the number of offers received by neighbouring houses and the gap between asking price and selling price, can be found in recent transactions in your area: get the list of comparable sales before listing or making an offer.
FAQ
How can you tell if your town is in a seller’s market or a buyer’s market?
By the number of months of inventory, which QPAREB publishes every quarter based on Centris data. Below 8 months, the seller has the edge; between 8 and 10, the market is balanced; above 10, the buyer negotiates. In fall 2026, the tightest seller’s market is in Saint-Jérôme (about 3 months for single-family homes), and the clearest buyer’s market is in Mont-Tremblant (nearly 16 for condos).
Is it a good time to buy in the Laurentians?
It depends on the area and the type of property. Over the 12 months ending in September 2026, houses in Saint-Jérôme, Sainte-Adèle and Morin-Heights were still selling in a seller’s market, while condos in Mont-Tremblant were approaching 16 months of inventory. In those three towns, the inventory of houses was growing faster than sales. Compare at least three similar recent sales before making an offer.
Do prices drop in a buyer’s market?
Not necessarily. According to QPAREB, above 10 months of inventory, price growth is generally low and may turn negative, but a decline is not automatic. In Mont-Tremblant, according to Centris statistics for the town, the same source as the rest of this article, the median condo price fell 6% over 12 months, to $417,125, while the single-family median rose 13%.
